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Uncanny: Historic Gold Bitcoin Price Charts Almost Identical (current BTC/USD price is $6217.98748245)

Latest Bitcoin News:
Uncanny: Historic Gold Bitcoin Price Charts Almost Identical
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Bitcoin Price | Blockchain | ICOs
The latest Bitcoin news has been sourced from the CoinSalad.com Bitcoin Price and News Events page. CoinSalad is a web service that provides real-time Bitcoin market info, charts, data and tools. Follow us on Twitter @CoinSalad.
submitted by coinsaladcom to CoinSalad [link] [comments]

What are the best historical chart sources for BTC and other cryptos? /r/Bitcoin

What are the best historical chart sources for BTC and other cryptos? /Bitcoin submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Charting historical bitcoin price /r/btc

Charting historical bitcoin price /btc submitted by BitcoinAllBot to BitcoinAll [link] [comments]

Putting $400M of Bitcoin on your company balance sheet

Also posted on my blog as usual. Read it there if you can, there are footnotes and inlined plots.
A couple of months ago, MicroStrategy (MSTR) had a spare $400M of cash which it decided to shift to Bitcoin (BTC).
Today we'll discuss in excrutiating detail why this is not a good idea.
When a company has a pile of spare money it doesn't know what to do with, it'll normally do buybacks or start paying dividends. That gives the money back to the shareholders, and from an economic perspective the money can get better invested in other more promising companies. If you have a huge pile of of cash, you probably should be doing other things than leave it in a bank account to gather dust.
However, this statement from MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor exists to make it clear he's buying into BTC for all the wrong reasons:
“This is not a speculation, nor is it a hedge. This was a deliberate corporate strategy to adopt a bitcoin standard.”
Let's unpack it and jump into the economics Bitcoin:

Is Bitcoin money?

No.
Or rather BTC doesn't act as money and there's no serious future path for BTC to become a form of money. Let's go back to basics. There are 3 main economic problems money solves:
1. Medium of Exchange. Before money we had to barter, which led to the double coincidence of wants problem. When everyone accepts the same money you can buy something from someone even if they don't like the stuff you own.
As a medium of exchange, BTC is not good. There are significant transaction fees and transaction waiting times built-in to BTC and these worsen the more popular BTC get.
You can test BTC's usefulness as a medium of exchange for yourself right now: try to order a pizza or to buy a random item with BTC. How many additional hurdles do you have to go through? How many fewer options do you have than if you used a regular currency? How much overhead (time, fees) is there?
2. Unit of Account. A unit of account is what you compare the value of objects against. We denominate BTC in terms of how many USD they're worth, so BTC is a unit of account presently. We can say it's because of lack of adoption, but really it's also because the market value of BTC is so volatile.
If I buy a $1000 table today or in 2017, it's roughly a $1000 table. We can't say that a 0.4BTC table was a 0.4BTC table in 2017. We'll expand on this in the next point:
3. Store of Value. When you create economic value, you don't want to be forced to use up the value you created right away.
For instance, if I fix your washing machine and you pay me in avocados, I'd be annoyed. I'd have to consume my payment before it becomes brown, squishy and disgusting. Avocado fruit is not good money because avocadoes loses value very fast.
On the other hand, well-run currencies like the USD, GBP, CAD, EUR, etc. all lose their value at a low and most importantly fairly predictible rate. Let's look at the chart of the USD against BTC
While the dollar loses value at a predictible rate, BTC is all over the place, which is bad.
One important use money is to write loan contracts. Loans are great. They let people spend now against their future potential earnings, so they can buy houses or start businesses without first saving up for a decade. Loans are good for the economy.
If you want to sign something that says "I owe you this much for that much time" then you need to be able to roughly predict the value of the debt in at the point in time where it's due.
Otherwise you'll have a hard time pricing the risk of the loan effectively. This means that you need to charge higher interests. The risk of making a loan in BTC needs to be priced into the interest of a BTC-denominated loan, which means much higher interest rates. High interests on loans are bad, because buying houses and starting businesses are good things.

BTC has a fixed supply, so these problems are built in

Some people think that going back to a standard where our money was denominated by a stock of gold (the Gold Standard) would solve economic problems. This is nonsense.
Having control over supply of your currency is a good thing, as long as it's well run.
See here
Remember that what is desirable is low variance in the value, not the value itself. When there are wild fluctuations in value, it's hard for money to do its job well.
Since the 1970s, the USD has been a fiat money with no intrinsic value. This means we control the supply of money.
Let's look at a classic poorly drawn econ101 graph
The market price for USD is where supply meets demand. The problem with a currency based on an item whose supply is fixed is that the price will necessarily fluctuate in response to changes in demand.
Imagine, if you will, that a pandemic strikes and that the demand for currency takes a sharp drop. The US imports less, people don't buy anything anymore, etc. If you can't print money, you get deflation, which is worsens everything. On the other hand, if you can make the money printers go brrrr you can stabilize the price
Having your currency be based on a fixed supply isn't just bad because in/deflation is hard to control.
It's also a national security risk...
The story of the guy who crashed gold prices in North Africa
In the 1200s, Mansa Munsa, the emperor of the Mali, was rich and a devout Muslim and wanted everyone to know it. So he embarked on a pilgrimage to make it rain all the way to Mecca.
He in fact made it rain so hard he increased the overall supply of gold and unintentionally crashed gold prices in Cairo by 20%, wreaking an economic havoc in North Africa that lasted a decade.
This story is fun, the larger point that having your inflation be at the mercy of foreign nations is an undesirable attribute in any currency. The US likes to call some countries currency manipulators, but this problem would be serious under a gold standard.

Currencies are based on trust

Since the USD is based on nothing except the US government's word, how can we trust USD not to be mismanaged?
The answer is that you can probably trust the fed until political stooges get put in place. Currently, the US's central bank managing the USD, the Federal Reserve (the Fed for friends & family), has administrative authority. The fed can say "no" to dumb requests from the president.
People who have no idea what the fed does like to chant "audit the fed", but the fed is already one of the best audited US federal entities. The transcripts of all their meetings are out in the open. As is their balance sheet, what they plan to do and why. If the US should audit anything it's the Department of Defense which operates without any accounting at all.
It's easy to see when a central bank will go rogue: it's when political yes-men are elected to the board.
For example, before printing themselves into hyperinflation, the Venezuelan president appointed a sociologist who publicly stated “Inflation does not exist in real life” and instead is a made up capitalist lie. Note what happened mere months after his gaining control over the Venezuelan currency
This is a key policy. One paper I really like, Sargent (1984) "The end of 4 big inflations" states:
The essential measures that ended hyperinflation in each of Germany,Austria, Hungary, and Poland were, first, the creation of an independentcentral bank that was legally committed to refuse the government'sdemand or additional unsecured credit and, second, a simultaneousalteration in the fiscal policy regime.
In english: *hyperinflation stops when the central bank can say "no" to the government."
The US Fed, like other well good central banks, is run by a bunch of nerds. When it prints money, even as aggressively as it has it does so for good reasons. You can see why they started printing on March 15th as the COVID lockdowns started:
The Federal Reserve is prepared to use its full range of tools to support the flow of credit to households and businesses and thereby promote its maximum employment and price stability goals.
In english: We're going to keep printing and lowering rates until jobs are back and inflation is under control. If we print until the sun is blotted out, we'll print in the shade.

BTC is not gold

Gold is a good asset for doomsday-preppers. If society crashes, gold will still have value.
How do we know that?
Gold has held value throughout multiple historic catastrophes over thousands of years. It had value before and after the Bronze Age Collapse, the Fall of the Western Roman Empire and Gengis Khan being Gengis Khan.
Even if you erased humanity and started over, the new humans would still find gold to be economically valuable. When Europeans d̶i̶s̶c̶o̶v̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ c̶o̶n̶q̶u̶e̶r̶e̶d̶ g̶e̶n̶o̶c̶i̶d̶e̶d̶ went to America, they found gold to be an important item over there too. This is about equivalent to finding humans on Alpha-Centauri and learning that they think gold is a good store of value as well.
Some people are puzzled at this: we don't even use gold for much! But it has great properties:
First, gold is hard to fake and impossible to manufacture. This makes it good to ascertain payment.
Second, gold doesnt react to oxygen, so it doesn't rust or tarnish. So it keeps value over time unlike most other materials.
Last, gold is pretty. This might sound frivolous, and you may not like it, but jewelry has actual value to humans.
It's no coincidence if you look at a list of the wealthiest families, a large number of them trade in luxury goods.
To paraphrase Veblen humans have a profound desire to signal social status, for the same reason peacocks have unwieldy tails. Gold is a great way to achieve that.
On the other hand, BTC lacks all these attributes. Its value is largely based on common perception of value. There are a few fundamental drivers of demand:
Apart from these, it's hard to argue that BTC will retain value throughout some sort of economic catastrophe.

BTC is really risky

One last statement from Michael Saylor I take offense to is this:
“We feel pretty confident that Bitcoin is less risky than holding cash, less risky than holding gold,” MicroStrategy CEO said in an interview
"BTC is less risky than holding cash or gold long term" is nonsense. We saw before that BTC is more volatile on face value, and that as long as the Fed isn't run by spider monkeys stacked in a trench coat, the inflation is likely to be within reasonable bounds.
But on top of this, BTC has Abrupt downside risks that normal currencies don't. Let's imagine a few:

Blockchain solutions are fundamentally inefficient

Blockchain was a genius idea. I still marvel at the initial white paper which is a great mix of economics and computer science.
That said, blockchain solutions make large tradeoffs in design because they assume almost no trust between parties. This leads to intentionally wasteful designs on a massive scale.
The main problem is that all transactions have to be validated by expensive computational operations and double checked by multiple parties. This means waste:
Many design problems can be mitigated by various improvements over BTC, but it remains that a simple database always works better than a blockchain if you can trust the parties to the transaction.
submitted by VodkaHaze to badeconomics [link] [comments]

Quick list of the most useful data resources in crypto

Compiled by the Messari Research team:
Dune Analytics - provides a number of pre-set sector and project specific dashboards on key metrics needed to assess the health of the industry. Create custom dashboards with SQL by directly querying the Ethereum blockchain.
Nansen - On-chain analysis providing various sector and project specific dashboards. Specifically useful for tracking behavior of specific ERC-20 movements from exchanges, unique addresses and large holders.
Token Terminal - Great for comparing traditional financial metrics like revenue generated by various protocols. Useful for generating relative valuation comparisons.
DeFi Pulse - DeFi Pulse’s Total Value Locked (TVL) metric has become the de facto approximation of the size of DeFi, calculated by summing all collateral locked in a given protocol.
Etherscan - Ethereum’s tried and true block explorer. Use cases include checking the status of current on-chain transactions, looking through historical transactions, viewing top holders of a certain token, and monitoring gas fees.
CoinMetrics - Broad range of on-chain, price, volume, mining, and supply data points for almost all major blockchains.
Glassnode - Multi-purpose data provider offering an array of charts and dashboards like “whale watching” chart that shows the number of addresses holding more than 1,000 BTC.
IntotheBlock - Another on-chain/market analytics tool great for conducting due diligence. Offers unique charts that show, for example, order book market depth.
Skew - The place for derivative data across bitcoin and ethereum futures and options, useful for analyzing crypto market structure during stress tests like Black Thursday.
Messari - The core screener tools allow me to keep up with short and long term price movements. The reports we’ve compiled are also great for tracking leading crypto funds.
The charting tool is great for tracking year-to-date performance:
More on using each resource here
submitted by CryptigoVespucci to ethereum [link] [comments]

Bitcoin is due to go up if you follow S2F - Let's get ready to rumble!

Bitcoin is due to go up if you follow S2F - Let's get ready to rumble!

BTC historical Stock to Flow chart
According to Stock to Flow, it is time for BTC to makes some moves up. It's been a fairly dependable bellwether for Bitcoins movement, whether up or down.
As you can see from the above chart, it looks to be the season to be jolly for longs is upon us. Of course, this could go sideways still for another couple months, but with every passing day the the magnet drawing BTC to the northern reaches gets ever stronger.
Here is a more recent range for the Stock to Flow model:

Stock to Flow chart from June 2016 to January 2020
Comparing where we are now to the lead up to the bull run starting in 2016 - we are on the cusp of a long and fruitful bull season!
Now of course, Bitcoin could decide on a new path and break from precedent. But, why should it?
What do you think? I for one do believe that history will repeat once again, but of course: nothing is 100%
Fingers crossed that this model continues to be correct!
submitted by abbeyeiger to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

Public APIs to download historic Bitcoin candlestick data

Hi Everyone,
I've seen a lot of interest from people in this group to access historical Bitcoin candlestick data. To help everyone out, we've made all of our candlestick data public. That means you can access everything we have here:
https://developers.shrimpy.io/docs/#get-candles
You don't need to sign up for an account or anything. The data is completely public for use. Just call the endpoint in your browser to test like this:
https://dev-api.shrimpy.io/v1/exchanges/binance/candles?quoteTradingSymbol=USDT&baseTradingSymbol=BTC&interval=1H
Try a few different pairs, exchanges, and candlestick sizes - I think you will find it pretty exciting! You can of course plot this data as well. We have some examples of how to plot candlestick data here.
I'm happy to answer any questions if you have some. Looking forward to hearing your feedback!
We also have endpoints for live order book snapshots, market data, trade websockets, and more. You can find our full guide on how to make a crypto trading bot (with all these different data endpoints) here.
submitted by ShrimpyApp to CryptoCurrency [link] [comments]

How To Use The Bitcoin Calculator App

How To Use The Bitcoin Calculator App

https://preview.redd.it/d23or4ml5nu51.png?width=800&format=png&auto=webp&s=e27f4858fc4f06d17875023c5a3f87717104bcae
Visit us at https://bitcoincalculator.org
Use this bitcoin calculator to find out exactly how much your bitcoin is worth in any of the supported global currencies, using accurate, up-to-date exchange rates.
Get real-time and historical trends in the BTC value for your selected currency and easily perform any of the following currency conversions:

- BTC to USD
- BTC to AUD
- BTC to BRL
- BTC to CAD
- BTC to CHF
- BTC to CLP
- BTC to CNY
- BTC to DKK
- BTC to EUR
- BTC to GBP
- BTC to HKD
- BTC to INR
- BTC to ISK
- BTC to JPY
- BTC to KRW
- BTC to NZD
- BTC to PLN
- BTC to RUB
- BTC to SEK
- BTC to THB
- BTC to TRY
- BTC to TWD

Sign up to any of our recommended bitcoin exchanges to start buying and selling BTC today.
Features:
- Backed by real-time price data and interactive charts
- Total circulating BTC
- Market capitalization
- Daily trade volume
- Easy access to your favorite exchanges
submitted by seoexpertdipum0 to u/seoexpertdipum0 [link] [comments]

Is right now a good time to invest in bitcoin?

Just curious, and just turned 18.
submitted by bigboia13 to btc [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Market— Week of 09/21/2020

Bitcoin Market— Week of 09/21/2020

BTC/USD hourly chart
Last week, the Bitcoin was able to break the $10,600 resistance and stay above $10,200, thus establishing a bullish trend in the short term. The BTC price reached as high as $11,185 and then formed a sideway channel, with support near $10,800.
In order to continue with the bullish trend, the price needs to stay above the current support and break the new resistance at $11,200. Due to the low volatility in the past 2 weeks, the BTC price is not expected to reach $12,000 within this week.
Review of the week:
The CEO of Elitium published an article on Cointelegraph, expressing his views on the future of DeFi. As mentioned in the article, DeFi is the next evolution of the financial system, but there are many factors that affect the future of DeFi. For example, one is Ethereum 2.0 and its attempt to solve the scalability of Ethereum. Its success or failure will affect everything related to the Ethereum blockchain. Another factor is the response of banks and regulators to DeFi. Currently, DeFi must supervise itself as an industry. It must act in an ethical manner and develop solutions, such as insurance, to protect people. Unless we develop and meet these standards, DeFi will not be able to compete with traditional banking systems. There is also that practitioners in crypto industry should educate the public about DeFi and help them understand why this new technology can benefit people’s daily lives. In addition, DeFi alone is unlikely to be adopted on a large scale. Some people simply don’t want to deal with completely decentralized technology.
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.


https://preview.redd.it/zmek7j3r3ho51.jpg?width=260&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=b2b622d2539e6d78480755a5598618e316db86d1
submitted by Coinviva to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

Bitcoin Market— Week of 09/14/2020

Bitcoin Market— Week of 09/14/2020

BTC/USD hourly chart


The Bitcoin price had low volatility ever since it dropped from $12,000 to $10,000. There was buying activity as the price tested the $10,000 support multiple times. The BTC price rose slowly to $10,600 but was met with resistance, and is settling at around $10,300 without a strong sense of direction.
In order to resume the bullish trend, the BTC price needs to build up the momentum to break the $10,600 resistance, as well as staying above $10,200. The support remains at $10,000. A break below this level would indicate a downturn and could test $9,000.
Review of the week:
Jay Hao, OKEx CEO, shared his views on DeFi that the decentralized finance space has grown exponentially over the last few months, to the point where more than $9 billion worth of crypto assets were locked in its protocols before crypto prices started dropping. This exponential growth in the last few months appears to be mainly related to a yield farming trend that started when lending protocol Compound began distributing its COMP governance token to users who interacted with the protocol. Yield farming or liquidity mining allows DeFi users to generate rewards with their cryptocurrency holdings by interacting with protocols that distribute governance tokens. Farming yield can be a profitable venture on its own, but the tokens being farmed often see their price surge as well (YFI and YFII’s success). Meanwhile, there are various risks that aren’t immediately clear (YAM’s unaudited protocols and SUSHI’s scam) Diversification is very often recommended by investors because not “putting all your eggs in one basket” helps ensure you don’t lose everything to scams, unexpected market moves or technical issues, and invest in potential gems while it’s still early.
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.

https://preview.redd.it/d8fnjquhr2n51.jpg?width=260&format=pjpg&auto=webp&s=2f07c65be29ed63da2d7fb564833f919fc74243b
submitted by Coinviva to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

New Bitcoin bull run? Whales and institutions accumulating, data shows

This post was originally published on this siteThis post was originally published on this siteAs the price of Bitcoin (BTC) breaks past $11,100 on Sep. 19, whale activities and Bakkt’s all-time high volume suggests strengthening momentum. The 4-hour price chart of Bitcoin. Source: TradingView.com According to CryptoQuant’s Ki Young Ju, fewer whales have been sending BTC to exchanges. Historically, the data indicates […]
submitted by FuzzyOneAdmin to fuzzyone [link] [comments]

09-07 17:55 - 'Bitcoin Market— Week of 09/07/2020' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/Coinviva removed from /r/Bitcoin within 573-583min

'''

[ ]1
BTC/USD hourly chart

The Bitcoin price had a volatile week, which started off with reaching $12,000 and then quickly dived to $10,000 within 2 days, as the stock market experienced a big drop in the beginning of September. The BTC price settled at around $10,250 the moment.
As seen in the hourly chart, a sideway channel has formed and there is some support at $10,000, possibly due to profit taking by the short sellers. If the BTC price becomes volatile again and drops below $10,000, it would indicate a bearish market and could test the next support level, which is at $9,000.
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.

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Bitcoin Market— Week of 09/07/2020
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09-03 06:47 - 'Bitcoin Market— Week of 08/31/2020' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/Coinviva removed from /r/Bitcoin within 4179-4189min

'''

[ BTC/USD hourly chart ]1
Last week, the Bitcoin price bounced to $11,847, which formed a lower high compared to the previous week. It then dipped to $11,137 and formed a double bottom two days later. It slowly climbed to $11,600 and resumed the upward trend after breaking the resistance at $11,600. The current price is at $11,724.
If the BTC price is able to hold above $11,600, it has a chance to break above the previous high at $11,847 and test $12,000 again. The chart indicates that there is a strong support near $11,150 where the double bottom pattern was formed.
Review of the week:
Hayden Adams, the founder of the decentralized trading protocol Uniswap, tweeted that Uniswap’s 24-hour trading volume was higher than Coinbase for the first time in history. Uniswap’s 24-hour trading volume was US$426 million while Coinbase Pro’s 24-hour trading volume was US$348 million. Crypto analyst Joseph Young commented that it is unbelievable that who would have thought a year ago that a decentralized exchange (DEX) would exceed the trading volume of Coinbase. The explosive growth of DeFi in the past year is inseparable from the greed of human nature. YFI founder Andre Cronje at this year’s Smart Contract Summit said: “the reason there is such a massive influx of money right now is because people are making money in insane amounts, and people are snapping up and selling governance tokens (assets designed to allow people to make decisions on DeFi protocals) to promote the explosion of DeFi. However, this is not the sustainable development part of DeFi. When the “greedy phase” is over, valuable protocols in the DeFi field (such as Synthetix, Compound and Chainlink) will still exist.”
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.

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Bitcoin Market— Week of 08/31/2020
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09-09 17:25 - 'Bull Run Profitability on BCH vs BTC' (self.Bitcoin) by /u/mtljones removed from /r/Bitcoin within 1-11min

'''
Guys, was looking over the historic charts and data I noticed the + price of BCH when BTC moons, sorta seems like more profitability in BCH 🚀 than BTC 🚀 ei 0.5 BTC = 5k, moons to 20k, profit of 5k. 22 BCH = 5k, moons to $1000 (while btc is mooning to 20k), profit of 17k.
'''
Bull Run Profitability on BCH vs BTC
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submitted by removalbot to removalbot [link] [comments]

Coinviva Bitcoin Market Weekly Report - Week of 10/08/2020

Coinviva Bitcoin Market Weekly Report - Week of 10/08/2020

Coinviva BTC-USD Hourly Chart
The Bitcoin price has been trading within a range last week. The short-term trend has become more bullish with higher lows established in the past couple of days. If the momentum starts to build up in the next day, it is possible that the price would break above the current resistance at $12,000.
The target for the next 2 weeks is $13,000, while the support level is at $11,000.
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.
Review of the week:
Crypto asset manager Grayscale Investments has publicly filed with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) on behalf of its Ethereum Trust to become a company reporting to the commission. If this application is successful, Ethereum Trust will become the second platform to achieve the status of a digital currency investment vehicle reporting to the SEC after Grayscale Bitcoin Trust earlier in January. Grayscale hopes to attract more institutional investors into the crypto space with this filing as most of these investors are wary of making investments in instruments that are not registered with the commission. Grayscale said that over one-third of U.S investors have now shown interest in investing in Bitcoin and other crypto assets and this might be a wakeup call for financial advisors to catch up on crypto assets and facilitate the transition of new adopters in the crypto market.
submitted by Coinviva to Bitcoin [link] [comments]

For Trading April 7th

For Trading April 7th
STOCKS RUN-UP Oil Falls
False Hopes
Today was an amazing day! I don’t believe that the bottom has been made, and I don’t think that today was a day to be a buyer, but as my Closing Comments says, “I could not have been more wrong.” We cut through every area of supply that I pointed out in last night’s Weekly Strategies. Here is the closing comment for tonight: https://youtu.be/JHjU3KOAQR8 . My problem with today’s action is that while everyone wants to believe that this was the bottom, historically, it is without precedent. There are many problems that we will face that are not currently known. The earnings of the companies that have no idea how long consumers are not buying clothes at Macy’s or TJ Maxx, or restaurants, where it’s not like you can make up the business with people eating 2 meals at a time. The closure of the Airbus plant in Alabama, or American Airlines cutting their N.Y. flights from 271 /day down to 13 is just not something that can be quantified when it comes to the net effect to both the balance sheet and profits. But the DJIA was +1627.46 (7.73%), NASDAQ +540.16 (7.33%), S&P 500 +175.03 (7.03%), the Russell +86.72 (8.24%) and the DJ Transports +532.38 (7.29%). Market internals left a lot to be desired with the A/D solid at NYSE 9.5:1 and NASDAQ 5.5:1, but volume was anemic with NYSE 1.4 billion and the NASDAQ 3.8 billion. All 30 DJIA stocks were higher with BA leading the way +113.31 DP’s but no other triple digit winners. On the +11.37% gainer on 3/24 there were 10 triple-digit winners. The strongest groups were Information technology, financials and consumer discretionary, with only Consumer Staples weak.
Our “open forum” on Discord, which allows me to interact with subscribers and others to allow direct questions and chart opinions on just about any stock, continues to grow with more participants every day. It is informative and allows me to share insights as the market is open and moving. The link is: https://discord.gg/ATvC7YZ and I will be there and active from before the open and all day. It’s a great place to share ideas and gain some insights, and we’ve grown to almost 1400 members.
SECTORS: We started with positive numbers from Europe on COVID-19 deaths and the first group pre-market were the some of the smaller biotech firms with Inovio Pharma (INO) started with a gap up and after trading over $8.80, never quite made it back in regular hours and closed $8.44 +.70 (9.04%), Immunomedics (IMMU) ended a trial for their breast cancer treatment because it’s efficacy was confirmed. The stock, which traded as high as $27.33 in 2018 had fallen to $8.80 last week opened the day at $20.09 but sold off a bit to close $18.78 +9.38 (99.79%). Also in the same group, CODX finished $10.31 +2.11 (25.73%) and VIR $36.70 +7.70 (26.55%). In another group, Wayfair beat both revenues and earnings and the home goods company, which traded down from $173 last year to a low of 21.70 on 3/19 gapped up to open $70.28 and closed $71.50 +20.87 (41.22%).
BIOPHARMA: was HIGHER with BIIB +9.58, ABBV +2.31, REGN +10.95, ISRG +37.33 (8.07%), MYL +.30, TEVA +.94 (11.19%), VRTX +17.69 (7.42%), BHC +1.27, INCY +6.80, ICPT +3.90, LABU +4.44 (22.11%) and IBB $110.50 +4.25 (4%).
CANNABIS: This group was HIGHER with TLRY +,45, CGC +1.10, CRON +.20, GWPH +4.78, PYX +.18, NBEV +.05, CURLF +.13, KERN +.80 (14.75%) and MJ $10.96 +.52 (4.98%).
DEFENSE: was HIGHER with LMT +16.50 (4.71%), RTX (the combination of RTN and UTX) was +7.32 (14.66%), gd +8.07, txt +2.49, noc +18.98, bwxt +.42, tdy +19.66 (6.81%) and ITA $148.00 +12.10 (8.9%).
RETAIL: was HIGHER with M + .94 (19.54%), JWN +3.38 (25.9%), KSS +3.04 (26.41%), DDS +8.93 (37.41%), JCP +.05 (18.34%), WMT +5.92, TGT +4.93, TJX +5.15 (12.57%), RL +7.60 (12.46%), UAA +.77, LULU +12.75, TPR +2.09, CPRI +2.17 (25.44%) and XRT $30.21 +3.02 (11.11%).
FAANG and Big Cap: were HIGHER with GOOGL +89.36, AMZN +83.41, AAPL +21.29 (8.82%), FB +10.82, NFLX +17.22, NVDA +25.47 (10.44%), TSLA +32.99, BABA +9.39, BIDU +5.66, BA +23.38 (18.78%), CAT +5.33, DIS +5.92 and XLK $83.70 +6.58 (8.53%).
FINANCIALS were HIGHER with GS +10.07, JPM +5.45, BAC +1.41, MS +3.40, C +3.51, PNC +9.12, AIG +1.11, TRV +5.09, AXP +10.70 (14.54%) and XLF $21.05 +1.41 (7.18%).
OIL, $26.08 -2.26. The explosive moves in Oil recently have been news driven and the cancellation of the OPEC meeting and the threat of tariffs from Mr. Trump have cut off the rally from the $20.00 level. Today’s decline had little to do with the Oil stocks as all were higher. CVX +5.40, XOM +1.40, OXY +.50, NBL +.49, MRO +.02, MPC +3.03 (15.10%), RIG +.05, APA +.62, BP +.28 and XLE $31.41 +1.58 (5.3%).
METALS, GOLD: $1,693.90 + 48.20. After the recent gains, Gold has failed to break through the highs around $1700 until today when it traded $1,715 before selling off a bit. Tonight, it has traded as high as $1742.00 and looks to be higher in the near future.
BITCOIN: closed $7,330 +530. After we traded in a short-range day followed by a $1,000 range on Friday BTC closed above $7,000 for the first time since it broke to the downside early last month. While I want to add the 350 sold just over a week ago, I want to wait and see some stabilization. We still own 400 GBTC with an average of $8.06. GBTC closed $7.95 + .47 today.
Tomorrow is another day.
CAM
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Bitcoin Market Weekly Report - Week of 03/08/2020

Bitcoin Market Weekly Report - Week of 03/08/2020

BTC/USD hourly chart
The Bitcoin price had a strong rally last week. It went from $9,700 to $11,400 within 2 days. It then traded within a range for a few days before breaking the resistance and reaching as high as $12,097, which was up 23% for the week. The BTC price dipped to $10,548 due to profit taking and settled in a range. The current support is at $10,700.
The Bitcoin price is expected to trade within a range in the short term. If the buyers are holding on to their positions and more buyers are coming in, the market may test the $12,000 resistance again this week.
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.
Review of the week:
Falling interest rates are tempting some Americans to forgo safety and pour their savings into assets such as stocks and bitcoin, a recently report from Bloomberg writes, a young American was planning to convert his high-yield savings (risk-free 2%) at Ally Bank into bitcoin. He thinks the future is one of long-term economic stagnation and low rates. With the background that nationwide lockdowns enacted to slow the spread of Covid-19 have cut consumer spending, and stimulus checks arrived for millions of Americans, people came to one thought that now isn’t a great time to hold onto money or cash. Pandemic is testing confidence in US currency and dollar sinks to two-year low in July.

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Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

Where is Bitcoin Going and When?

The Federal Reserve and the United States government are pumping extreme amounts of money into the economy, already totaling over $484 billion. They are doing so because it already had a goal to inflate the United States Dollar (USD) so that the market can continue to all-time highs. It has always had this goal. They do not care how much inflation goes up by now as we are going into a depression with the potential to totally crash the US economy forever. They believe the only way to save the market from going to zero or negative values is to inflate it so much that it cannot possibly crash that low. Even if the market does not dip that low, inflation serves the interest of powerful people.
The impending crash of the stock market has ramifications for Bitcoin, as, though there is no direct ongoing-correlation between the two, major movements in traditional markets will necessarily affect Bitcoin. According to the Blockchain Center’s Cryptocurrency Correlation Tool, Bitcoin is not correlated with the stock market. However, when major market movements occur, they send ripples throughout the financial ecosystem which necessary affect even ordinarily uncorrelated assets.
Therefore, Bitcoin will reach X price on X date after crashing to a price of X by X date.

Stock Market Crash

The Federal Reserve has caused some serious consternation with their release of ridiculous amounts of money in an attempt to buoy the economy. At face value, it does not seem to have any rationale or logic behind it other than keeping the economy afloat long enough for individuals to profit financially and politically. However, there is an underlying basis to what is going on which is important to understand in order to profit financially.
All markets are functionally price probing systems. They constantly undergo a price-discovery process. In a fiat system, money is an illusory and a fundamentally synthetic instrument with no intrinsic value – similar to Bitcoin. The primary difference between Bitcoin is the underlying technology which provides a slew of benefits that fiat does not. Fiat, however, has an advantage in being able to have the support of powerful nation-states which can use their might to insure the currency’s prosperity.
Traditional stock markets are composed of indices (pl. of index). Indices are non-trading market instruments which are essentially summaries of business values which comprise them. They are continuously recalculated throughout a trading day, and sometimes reflected through tradable instruments such as Exchange Traded Funds or Futures. Indices are weighted by market capitalizations of various businesses.
Price theory essentially states that when a market fails to take out a new low in a given range, it will have an objective to take out the high. When a market fails to take out a new high, it has an objective to make a new low. This is why price-time charts go up and down, as it does this on a second-by-second, minute-by-minute, day-by-day, and even century-by-century basis. Therefore, market indices will always return to some type of bull market as, once a true low is formed, the market will have a price objective to take out a new high outside of its’ given range – which is an all-time high. Instruments can only functionally fall to zero, whereas they can grow infinitely.
So, why inflate the economy so much?
Deflation is disastrous for central banks and markets as it raises the possibility of producing an overall price objective of zero or negative values. Therefore, under a fractional reserve system with a fiat currency managed by a central bank – the goal of the central bank is to depreciate the currency. The dollar is manipulated constantly with the intention of depreciating its’ value.
Central banks have a goal of continued inflated fiat values. They tend to ordinarily contain it at less than ten percent (10%) per annum in order for the psyche of the general populace to slowly adjust price increases. As such, the markets are divorced from any other logic. Economic policy is the maintenance of human egos, not catering to fundamental analysis. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) growth is well-known not to be a measure of actual growth or output. It is a measure of increase in dollars processed. Banks seek to produce raising numbers which make society feel like it is growing economically, making people optimistic. To do so, the currency is inflated, though inflation itself does not actually increase growth. When society is optimistic, it spends and engages in business – resulting in actual growth. It also encourages people to take on credit and debts, creating more fictional fiat.
Inflation is necessary for markets to continue to reach new heights, generating positive emotional responses from the populace, encouraging spending, encouraging debt intake, further inflating the currency, and increasing the sale of government bonds. The fiat system only survives by generating more imaginary money on a regular basis.
Bitcoin investors may profit from this by realizing that stock investors as a whole always stand to profit from the market so long as it is managed by a central bank and does not collapse entirely. If those elements are filled, it has an unending price objective to raise to new heights. It also allows us to realize that this response indicates that the higher-ups believe that the economy could crash in entirety, and it may be wise for investors to have multiple well-thought-out exit strategies.

Economic Analysis of Bitcoin

The reason why the Fed is so aggressively inflating the economy is due to fears that it will collapse forever or never rebound. As such, coupled with a global depression, a huge demand will appear for a reserve currency which is fundamentally different than the previous system. Bitcoin, though a currency or asset, is also a market. It also undergoes a constant price-probing process. Unlike traditional markets, Bitcoin has the exact opposite goal. Bitcoin seeks to appreciate in value and not depreciate. This has a quite different affect in that Bitcoin could potentially become worthless and have a price objective of zero.
Bitcoin was created in 2008 by a now famous mysterious figure known as Satoshi Nakamoto and its’ open source code was released in 2009. It was the first decentralized cryptocurrency to utilize a novel protocol known as the blockchain. Up to one megabyte of data may be sent with each transaction. It is decentralized, anonymous, transparent, easy to set-up, and provides myriad other benefits. Bitcoin is not backed up by anything other than its’ own technology.
Bitcoin is can never be expected to collapse as a framework, even were it to become worthless. The stock market has the potential to collapse in entirety, whereas, as long as the internet exists, Bitcoin will be a functional system with a self-authenticating framework. That capacity to persist regardless of the actual price of Bitcoin and the deflationary nature of Bitcoin means that it has something which fiat does not – inherent value.
Bitcoin is based on a distributed database known as the “blockchain.” Blockchains are essentially decentralized virtual ledger books, replete with pages known as “blocks.” Each page in a ledger is composed of paragraph entries, which are the actual transactions in the block.
Blockchains store information in the form of numerical transactions, which are just numbers. We can consider these numbers digital assets, such as Bitcoin. The data in a blockchain is immutable and recorded only by consensus-based algorithms. Bitcoin is cryptographic and all transactions are direct, without intermediary, peer-to-peer.
Bitcoin does not require trust in a central bank. It requires trust on the technology behind it, which is open-source and may be evaluated by anyone at any time. Furthermore, it is impossible to manipulate as doing so would require all of the nodes in the network to be hacked at once – unlike the stock market which is manipulated by the government and “Market Makers”. Bitcoin is also private in that, though the ledge is openly distributed, it is encrypted. Bitcoin’s blockchain has one of the greatest redundancy and information disaster recovery systems ever developed.
Bitcoin has a distributed governance model in that it is controlled by its’ users. There is no need to trust a payment processor or bank, or even to pay fees to such entities. There are also no third-party fees for transaction processing. As the ledge is immutable and transparent it is never possible to change it – the data on the blockchain is permanent. The system is not easily susceptible to attacks as it is widely distributed. Furthermore, as users of Bitcoin have their private keys assigned to their transactions, they are virtually impossible to fake. No lengthy verification, reconciliation, nor clearing process exists with Bitcoin.
Bitcoin is based on a proof-of-work algorithm. Every transaction on the network has an associated mathetical “puzzle”. Computers known as miners compete to solve the complex cryptographic hash algorithm that comprises that puzzle. The solution is proof that the miner engaged in sufficient work. The puzzle is known as a nonce, a number used only once. There is only one major nonce at a time and it issues 12.5 Bitcoin. Once it is solved, the fact that the nonce has been solved is made public.
A block is mined on average of once every ten minutes. However, the blockchain checks every 2,016,000 minutes (approximately four years) if 201,600 blocks were mined. If it was faster, it increases difficulty by half, thereby deflating Bitcoin. If it was slower, it decreases, thereby inflating Bitcoin. It will continue to do this until zero Bitcoin are issued, projected at the year 2140. On the twelfth of May, 2020, the blockchain will halve the amount of Bitcoin issued when each nonce is guessed. When Bitcoin was first created, fifty were issued per block as a reward to miners. 6.25 BTC will be issued from that point on once each nonce is solved.
Unlike fiat, Bitcoin is a deflationary currency. As BTC becomes scarcer, demand for it will increase, also raising the price. In this, BTC is similar to gold. It is predictable in its’ output, unlike the USD, as it is based on a programmed supply. We can predict BTC’s deflation and inflation almost exactly, if not exactly. Only 21 million BTC will ever be produced, unless the entire network concedes to change the protocol – which is highly unlikely.
Some of the drawbacks to BTC include congestion. At peak congestion, it may take an entire day to process a Bitcoin transaction as only three to five transactions may be processed per second. Receiving priority on a payment may cost up to the equivalent of twenty dollars ($20). Bitcoin mining consumes enough energy in one day to power a single-family home for an entire week.

Trading or Investing?

The fundamental divide in trading revolves around the question of market structure. Many feel that the market operates totally randomly and its’ behavior cannot be predicted. For the purposes of this article, we will assume that the market has a structure, but that that structure is not perfect. That market structure naturally generates chart patterns as the market records prices in time. In order to determine when the stock market will crash, causing a major decline in BTC price, we will analyze an instrument, an exchange traded fund, which represents an index, as opposed to a particular stock. The price patterns of the various stocks in an index are effectively smoothed out. In doing so, a more technical picture arises. Perhaps the most popular of these is the SPDR S&P Standard and Poor 500 Exchange Traded Fund ($SPY).
In trading, little to no concern is given about value of underlying asset. We are concerned primarily about liquidity and trading ranges, which are the amount of value fluctuating on a short-term basis, as measured by volatility-implied trading ranges. Fundamental analysis plays a role, however markets often do not react to real-world factors in a logical fashion. Therefore, fundamental analysis is more appropriate for long-term investing.
The fundamental derivatives of a chart are time (x-axis) and price (y-axis). The primary technical indicator is price, as everything else is lagging in the past. Price represents current asking price and incorrectly implementing positions based on price is one of the biggest trading errors.
Markets and currencies ordinarily have noise, their tendency to back-and-fill, which must be filtered out for true pattern recognition. That noise does have a utility, however, in allowing traders second chances to enter favorable positions at slightly less favorable entry points. When you have any market with enough liquidity for historical data to record a pattern, then a structure can be divined. The market probes prices as part of an ongoing price-discovery process. Market technicians must sometimes look outside of the technical realm and use visual inspection to ascertain the relevance of certain patterns, using a qualitative eye that recognizes the underlying quantitative nature
Markets and instruments rise slower than they correct, however they rise much more than they fall. In the same vein, instruments can only fall to having no worth, whereas they could theoretically grow infinitely and have continued to grow over time. Money in a fiat system is illusory. It is a fundamentally synthetic instrument which has no intrinsic value. Hence, the recent seemingly illogical fluctuations in the market.
According to trade theory, the unending purpose of a market or instrument is to create and break price ranges according to the laws of supply and demand. We must determine when to trade based on each market inflection point as defined in price and in time as opposed to abandoning the trend (as the contrarian trading in this sub often does). Time and Price symmetry must be used to be in accordance with the trend. When coupled with a favorable risk to reward ratio, the ability to stay in the market for most of the defined time period, and adherence to risk management rules; the trader has a solid methodology for achieving considerable gains.
We will engage in a longer term market-oriented analysis to avoid any time-focused pressure. The Bitcoin market is open twenty-four-hours a day, so trading may be done when the individual is ready, without any pressing need to be constantly alert. Let alone, we can safely project months in advance with relatively high accuracy. Bitcoin is an asset which an individual can both trade and invest, however this article will be focused on trading due to the wide volatility in BTC prices over the short-term.

Technical Indicator Analysis of Bitcoin

Technical indicators are often considered self-fulfilling prophecies due to mass-market psychology gravitating towards certain common numbers yielded from them. They are also often discounted when it comes to BTC. That means a trader must be especially aware of these numbers as they can prognosticate market movements. Often, they are meaningless in the larger picture of things.
  • Volume – derived from the market itself, it is mostly irrelevant. The major problem with volume for stocks is that the US market open causes tremendous volume surges eradicating any intrinsic volume analysis. This does not occur with BTC, as it is open twenty-four-seven. At major highs and lows, the market is typically anemic. Most traders are not active at terminal discretes (peaks and troughs) because of levels of fear. Volume allows us confidence in time and price symmetry market inflection points, if we observe low volume at a foretold range of values. We can rationalize that an absolute discrete is usually only discovered and anticipated by very few traders. As the general market realizes it, a herd mentality will push the market in the direction favorable to defending it. Volume is also useful for swing trading, as chances for swing’s validity increases if an increase in volume is seen on and after the swing’s activation. Volume is steadily decreasing. Lows and highs are reached when volume is lower.
Therefore, due to the relatively high volume on the 12th of March, we can safely determine that a low for BTC was not reached.
  • VIX – Volatility Index, this technical indicator indicates level of fear by the amount of options-based “insurance” in portfolios. A low VIX environment, less than 20 for the S&P index, indicates a stable market with a possible uptrend. A high VIX, over 20, indicates a possible downtrend. VIX is essentially useless for BTC as BTC-based options do not exist. It allows us to predict the market low for $SPY, which will have an indirect impact on BTC in the short term, likely leading to the yearly low. However, it is equally important to see how VIX is changing over time, if it is decreasing or increasing, as that indicates increasing or decreasing fear. Low volatility allows high leverage without risk or rest. Occasionally, markets do rise with high VIX.
As VIX is unusually high, in the forties, we can be confident that a downtrend for the S&P 500 is imminent.
  • RSI (Relative Strength Index): The most important technical indicator, useful for determining highs and lows when time symmetry is not availing itself. Sometimes analysis of RSI can conflict in different time frames, easiest way to use it is when it is at extremes – either under 30 or over 70. Extremes can be used for filtering highs or lows based on time-and-price window calculations. Highly instructive as to major corrective clues and indicative of continued directional movement. Must determine if longer-term RSI values find support at same values as before. It is currently at 73.56.
  • Secondly, RSI may be used as a high or low filter, to observe the level that short-term RSI reaches in counter-trend corrections. Repetitions based on market movements based on RSI determine how long a trade should be held onto. Once a short term RSI reaches an extreme and stay there, the other RSI’s should gradually reach the same extremes. Once all RSI’s are at extreme highs, a trend confirmation should occur and RSI’s should drop to their midpoint.

Trend Definition Analysis of Bitcoin

Trend definition is highly powerful, cannot be understated. Knowledge of trend logic is enough to be a profitable trader, yet defining a trend is an arduous process. Multiple trends coexist across multiple time frames and across multiple market sectors. Like time structure, it makes the underlying price of the instrument irrelevant. Trend definitions cannot determine the validity of newly formed discretes. Trend becomes apparent when trades based in counter-trend inflection points continue to fail.
Downtrends are defined as an instrument making lower lows and lower highs that are recurrent, additive, qualified swing setups. Downtrends for all instruments are similar, except forex. They are fast and complete much quicker than uptrends. An average downtrend is 18 months, something which we will return to. An uptrend inception occurs when an instrument reaches a point where it fails to make a new low, then that low will be tested. After that, the instrument will either have a deep range retracement or it may take out the low slightly, resulting in a double-bottom. A swing must eventually form.
A simple way to roughly determine trend is to attempt to draw a line from three tops going upwards (uptrend) or a line from three bottoms going downwards (downtrend). It is not possible to correctly draw a downtrend line on the BTC chart, but it is possible to correctly draw an uptrend – indicating that the overall trend is downwards. The only mitigating factor is the impending stock market crash.

Time Symmetry Analysis of Bitcoin

Time is the movement from the past through the present into the future. It is a measurement in quantified intervals. In many ways, our perception of it is a human construct. It is more powerful than price as time may be utilized for a trade regardless of the market inflection point’s price. Were it possible to perfectly understand time, price would be totally irrelevant due to the predictive certainty time affords. Time structure is easier to learn than price, but much more difficult to apply with any accuracy. It is the hardest aspect of trading to learn, but also the most rewarding.
Humans do not have the ability to recognize every time window, however the ability to define market inflection points in terms of time is the single most powerful trading edge. Regardless, price should not be abandoned for time alone. Time structure analysis It is inherently flawed, as such the markets have a fail-safe, which is Price Structure. Even though Time is much more powerful, Price Structure should never be completely ignored. Time is the qualifier for Price and vice versa. Time can fail by tricking traders into counter-trend trading.
Time is a predestined trade quantifier, a filter to slow trades down, as it allows a trader to specifically focus on specific time windows and rest at others. It allows for quantitative measurements to reach deterministic values and is the primary qualifier for trends. Time structure should be utilized before price structure, and it is the primary trade criterion which requires support from price. We can see price structure on a chart, as areas of mathematical support or resistance, but we cannot see time structure.
Time may be used to tell us an exact point in the future where the market will inflect, after Price Theory has been fulfilled. In the present, price objectives based on price theory added to possible future times for market inflection points give us the exact time of market inflection points and price.
Time Structure is repetitions of time or inherent cycles of time, occurring in a methodical way to provide time windows which may be utilized for inflection points. They are not easily recognized and not easily defined by a price chart as measuring and observing time is very exact. Time structure is not a science, yet it does require precise measurements. Nothing is certain or definite. The critical question must be if a particular approach to time structure is currently lucrative or not.
We will measure it in intervals of 180 bars. Our goal is to determine time windows, when the market will react and when we should pay the most attention. By using time repetitions, the fact that market inflection points occurred at some point in the past and should, therefore, reoccur at some point in the future, we should obtain confidence as to when SPY will reach a market inflection point. Time repetitions are essentially the market’s memory. However, simply measuring the time between two points then trying to extrapolate into the future does not work. Measuring time is not the same as defining time repetitions. We will evaluate past sessions for market inflection points, whether discretes, qualified swings, or intra-range. Then records the times that the market has made highs or lows in a comparable time period to the future one seeks to trade in.
What follows is a time Histogram – A grouping of times which appear close together, then segregated based on that closeness. Time is aligned into combined histogram of repetitions and cycles, however cycles are irrelevant on a daily basis. If trading on an hourly basis, do not use hours.
  • Yearly Lows (last seven years): 1/1/13, 4/10/14, 1/15/15, 1/17/16, 1/1/17, 12/15/18, 2/6/19
  • Monthly Mode: 1, 1, 1, 1, 2, 4, 12
  • Daily Mode: 1, 1, 6, 10, 15, 15, 17
  • Monthly Lows (for the last year): 3/12/20 (10:00pm), 2/28/20 (7:09am), 1/2/20 (8:09pm), 12/18/19 (8:00am), 11/25/19 (1:00am), 10/24/19 (2:59am), 9/30/19 (2:59am), 8/29,19 (4:00am), 7/17/19 (7:59am), 6/4/19 (5:59pm), 5/1/19 (12:00am), 4/1/19 (12:00am)
  • Daily Lows Mode for those Months: 1, 1, 2, 4, 12, 17, 18, 24, 25, 28, 29, 30
  • Hourly Lows Mode for those Months (Military time): 0100, 0200, 0200, 0400, 0700, 0700, 0800, 1200, 1200, 1700, 2000, 2200
  • Minute Lows Mode for those Months: 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 00, 09, 09, 59, 59, 59, 59
  • Day of the Week Lows (last twenty-six weeks):
Weighted Times are repetitions which appears multiple times within the same list, observed and accentuated once divided into relevant sections of the histogram. They are important in the presently defined trading time period and are similar to a mathematical mode with respect to a series. Phased times are essentially periodical patterns in histograms, though they do not guarantee inflection points
Evaluating the yearly lows, we see that BTC tends to have its lows primarily at the beginning of every year, with a possibility of it being at the end of the year. Following the same methodology, we get the middle of the month as the likeliest day. However, evaluating the monthly lows for the past year, the beginning and end of the month are more likely for lows.
Therefore, we have two primary dates from our histogram.
1/1/21, 1/15/21, and 1/29/21
2:00am, 8:00am, 12:00pm, or 10:00pm
In fact, the high for this year was February the 14th, only thirty days off from our histogram calculations.
The 8.6-Year Armstrong-Princeton Global Economic Confidence model states that 2.15 year intervals occur between corrections, relevant highs and lows. 2.15 years from the all-time peak discrete is February 9, 2020 – a reasonably accurate depiction of the low for this year (which was on 3/12/20). (Taking only the Armstrong model into account, the next high should be Saturday, April 23, 2022). Therefore, the Armstrong model indicates that we have actually bottomed out for the year!
Bear markets cannot exist in perpetuity whereas bull markets can. Bear markets will eventually have price objectives of zero, whereas bull markets can increase to infinity. It can occur for individual market instruments, but not markets as a whole. Since bull markets are defined by low volatility, they also last longer. Once a bull market is indicated, the trader can remain in a long position until a new high is reached, then switch to shorts. The average bear market is eighteen months long, giving us a date of August 19th, 2021 for the end of this bear market – roughly speaking. They cannot be shorter than fifteen months for a central-bank controlled market, which does not apply to Bitcoin. (Otherwise, it would continue until Sunday, September 12, 2021.) However, we should expect Bitcoin to experience its’ exponential growth after the stock market re-enters a bull market.
Terry Laundy’s T-Theory implemented by measuring the time of an indicator from peak to trough, then using that to define a future time window. It is similar to an head-and-shoulders pattern in that it is the process of forming the right side from a synthetic technical indicator. If the indicator is making continued lows, then time is recalculated for defining the right side of the T. The date of the market inflection point may be a price or indicator inflection date, so it is not always exactly useful. It is better to make us aware of possible market inflection points, clustered with other data. It gives us an RSI low of May, 9th 2020.
The Bradley Cycle is coupled with volatility allows start dates for campaigns or put options as insurance in portfolios for stocks. However, it is also useful for predicting market moves instead of terminal dates for discretes. Using dates which correspond to discretes, we can see how those dates correspond with changes in VIX.
Therefore, our timeline looks like:
  • 2/14/20 – yearly high ($10372 USD)
  • 3/12/20 – yearly low thus far ($3858 USD)
  • 5/9/20 – T-Theory true yearly low (BTC between 4863 and 3569)
  • 5/26/20 – hashrate difficulty halvening
  • 11/14/20 – stock market low
  • 1/15/21 – yearly low for BTC, around $8528
  • 8/19/21 – end of stock bear market
  • 11/26/21 – eighteen months from halvening, average peak from halvenings (BTC begins rising from $3000 area to above $23,312)
  • 4/23/22 – all-time high
Taken from my blog: http://aliamin.info/2020/
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Bitcoin Market Weekly Report - Week of 27/07/2020

Bitcoin Market Weekly Report - Week of 27/07/2020
The Bitcoin price was able to break the $9,300 resistance as mentioned last week, and started a bullish trend that reached $10,190. It is the first time since end of May that the BTC price goes above $10,000.

Coinviva BTC-USD Hourly Chart
Based on the movement in the past few days, the support has been raised to $9,500. In order to carry on the bullish trend, the BTC price needs to continue trading above the middle Keltner band, currently at $9,800. The short term profit target is at $10,500. It would require a lot of buying power to break above the next resistance, which is $11,000.
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.
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The bitcoin price is ready for a rally, but it has to fall to $7,000 first. What else are analysts predicting?

The bitcoin price is ready for a rally, but it has to fall to $7,000 first. What else are analysts predicting?

https://preview.redd.it/3dh6e2ljbeb51.png?width=3366&format=png&auto=webp&s=8f3afd875fabb798d61e8f7c5f8f5a13cf36317d

Opinion: the BTC price will drop down to $7,000 before a new rally

Bloсkroots analyst and founder Josh Rager thinks that the price of bitcoin is ready to break through its historical maximum of $20,000, but it has to drop down first in order to do that.
He studied the chart starting from 2010 and noticed that there had been a powerful fall before each explosive growth. For example, the price formed a bear triangle in 2018, then fell from $6,300 to $3,100 and then rose to $13,800.
At the moment, the chart shows a similar formation. According to the analyst, the rate will plummet to $7,000 and then it will rise to the historical maximum towards the end of the year

The nearest target for bitcoin is $8,700

Analyst filbfilb writes. According to him, the price lost its key support at the level of $9,250 and is now on its way to the round point of $9,000.
According to the trader, the nearest target will be $8,700 where the week support and the lower boundary of the side channel are. The analyst points out that the price has been consolidating since the beginning of May within the range of $8,600-10,000.
This week the price of the first cryptocurrency has lost more than $200 alongside hacked Twitter accounts of cryptocurrency exchanges and some celebrities. The hackers asked the subscribers to transfer bitcoins to the specified address in order to get twice as big the amount in return.

The bitcoin price is ready to rise up above $11,000

CredibleCrypto analyst thinks that the BTC rate has completed the accumulation stage and is going to break through the point of $11,000.
He compared the current situation to the classic Wyckoff accumulation and came to the conclusion that it was completed. The trader predicts that the nearest targets should be the levels of $9,600, $10,400 and $11,000.
He points out that the bitcoin price is near the strong resistance of $10,000 and ready to liquidate the positions of sellers with one strong upward surge.
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Bitcoin Market Weekly Report - Week of 13/07/2020

Bitcoin Market Weekly Report - Week of 13/07/2020

Coinviva BTC/USD 30-min chart
The Bitcoin continued to trade in range bound for the third week in a row. The BTC price dropped below the $9,000 support at one point, but it managed to rebound and reach $9,468 afterwards. The price has since stabilized and is moving sideway again, at around $9,300.
The current support level remains at $9,000, while the resistance is at $9,500. There is no clear direction at the moment. If the volatility picks up, wait for the BTC price to break the support or resistance before determining the trade direction.
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.
Review of the week:
Since 1 July, Bitcoin‘s price hasn’t gained or lost by much, with the cryptocurrency continuing to trade within a tight price band. While the Realized Volatility dipped to 3.2% on 10 July, the implied volatility remained firm at 3.5%. It can be observed that the IV had been moving sideways over a couple of weeks, with traders not expecting an immediate trend reversal in the Bitcoin market. According to one of the Managing Partners at Blockhead Capital, Matt David Kaye, the reason for this suppressed volatility may be the flood of yield-seeking funds with short volatility options in the market. These have been advertised as low-risk, yield generating vehicles to many investors in the market. As the price of Bitcoin consolidated, market makers were trying to hedge their risk by ever-adjusting their spot exposure. This resulted in the creation of a tighter spread and by extension, predictable price ranges for June as they bought back BTC at low prices and sold BTC when the price rose even a little. Thus, these short-volatility funds were gaining pennies, with Kaye adding that the risk was mispriced in the Bitcoin Options market. However, this also gives an excellent opportunity to accumulate volatility, as when the market breaks out, it could result in larger profits. The only way now for the price to pick up is to have the spot market volume note a boost too.
BTC-USD Chart
Disclaimer: The above market commentary is based on technical analysis using historical pricing data, and is for reference only. It does not serve as investment or trading advice.

About Coinviva:
Coinviva aims to create the best crypto financial services ecosystem for both institutional and individual investors. We provide reliable fiat funding options, excellent trading liquidity, bank security level custody and one-stop high liquidity provision on-site & off-site. Our founding management team all come from top tiered investment banking (e.g. JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, Bank of America Merrill Lynch), with fully comprehensive financial institution operation experience.
Homepage: https://coinviva.com/
Telegram: https://t.me/coinviva
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Bitcoin 4 Dimensional Chart (Time, BTC/USD, BTC/Gold, and BTC/SPX) CRAZY BITCOIN MONTHLY CHART SET FOR BTC PRICE BREAKOUT ... History of Bitcoin Price (BTC) WOW...BITCOIN NEVER LOOKED SO GOOD  BTC HISTORICAL DATA MATTERS Bitcoin BTC/USD/Bitstamp See the history of cryptocurrency! Crypto chart

BTC USD (Bitcoin / US Dollar) This is the most popular Bitcoin pair in the world. Bitcoin uses peer-to-peer technology to operate with no central authority or banks; managing transactions and the issuing of Bitcoins is carried out collectively by the network. Bitcoin is open-source; its design is public, nobody owns or controls this cryptocurrency and everyone can take part. Bitcoin price grew ... Der Bitcoin - Euro Chart zeigt die Entwicklung des Bitcoin - Euro in grafischer Form und erlaubt somit einen schnellen Überblick über Kursverlauf, Höchst- und Tiefststände. Bitcoin Price Charts and History. Check Bitcoin's Current Price, Market Cap, Available Supply, and Total Supply. View Bitcoin's Current Ranking Among Other Cryptocurrencies. View Percentage Change From 1 Hour, 24 Hours, to 7 Days for Bitcoin. View Bitcoin's Price Chart and Historical Data From 7 Days, 1 Month, 3 Months, 6 Months, 1 Year, or All ... Bitcoin (BTC) is the world's first cryptocurrency built on distributed ledger (blockchain) with the proof-of-work mechanism that is not backed by any country's central bank or government, it was founded by "Satoshi Nakamoto", a pseudonym representing an individual or group of individuals, who published the whitepaper in October 31st, 2008. Historical performance for Bitcoin - USD (^BTCUSD) with historical highs & lows, new high & low prices, past performance, latest news.

[index] [41110] [40093] [9184] [28739] [49235] [25912] [51035] [1409] [32787] [32645]

Bitcoin 4 Dimensional Chart (Time, BTC/USD, BTC/Gold, and BTC/SPX)

Ethereum ETH/USD/Kraken See the history of cryptocurrency! BTC/bitcoin! - Duration: 18:10. ReplayCandle 88 views. 18:10 ... Bitcoin Chart Timelapse 2011- March 2019 - Duration: 5:22. SkylerBTC ... Bitcoin price has many different support areas leaving room for BTC to consolidate for next move up. As always, it is a battle of the bulls vs. bears. With targets for btc price to $12k and down ... BITCOIN IS EXACTLY ON PACE WHY BTC HISTORICAL DATA MATTERS #Bitcoin #btc Cycles of Bitcoin - https://www.tradingview.com/chart/BLX/IzGnRABO-The-Cycles-Of-B... BITCOIN PRICE UPDATE: In this btc video update today we quickly look at bitcoin zoomed out on the monthly chart and discuss what may be getting ready to happ... This video represent history of BTC-USD exchange rate until 2019.07.11 Bitcoin price is like crazy right now. How much will rising up? and, How much will falling down?

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